thinking tool.

Credit: William “Bill” Sharpe BA MA PhD (1934-)

Summary:

Three Horizons (or 3H for short) is a tool that invites thinking about the present, the desired future, and what it would take to get from here to there. It can be used to represent the interplay between the current state and a range of desirable futures, and the identification of the actions required to reach the envisioned future. The thinking tool can be used to help create and illustrate strategies for change, and discuss the tension between fundamental change processes (H2+ transformational ideas) and superficial tinkering (H2- delaying tactics) which seek to preserve the status quo.

Concept Details:

Horizon 1 (H1) is drawn to represent the current state. It identifies the dominant ideas, policies or structures that are deemed no longer fit for purpose. H1 depicts the social, economic and/or environmental arrangements that are failing people, place or planet.

Horizon 3 (H3) is the envisioned future state. Using foresight and creativity, H3 is the articulation of what could be; an articulation of how actors and systems can work in different ways to serve people, place and planet. The origin of H3 can often be found in H1. That is, early responses to the failings of H1 are tested, and subsequently scaled through H2 to arrive at H3.

Horizon 2 (H2) is the intermediate space between H1 and H3. H2 depicts the transformational pathways available to transition to the future. H2 is the space of tension between change strategies which seek to “prop up” and hold on to the current state (H2- preservation tactics), and the genuinely transformational strategies (H2+ innovations) which create the space for a different kind of system to emerge.

Real World Application:

paul will expand on this list over time, however to illustrate the 3H model here is one oversimplified example:

Income Support

• Horizon 1 (current state): Many Australian citizens on income support live on or below the poverty line. The value of income support is insufficient to support the essentials of life for most recipients.
• Horizon 3 (desired future): The “universal basic income” (UBI) is implemented to ensure every citizen has income for the essentials of life and to participate in their community. The action of the Australian Government to double the value of support payments during the COVID pandemic provided a glimpse of how an adequate transfer payment system can alleviate poverty rapidly.
• Horizon 2 (H2- status quo preserving process): Successive governments identify the inadequacy of income payments but do not act citing various reasons such as the un-affordability of UBI or a desire to keep income support low to “incentivise” people to work and not become dependant on the state. Small changes in the value of income support occur, such as an adjustment to the index used to calculate payments, or “one off” subsidies for utilities like power or gas bills.
• Horizon 2 (H2+ transformational path): The case for UBI is well researched and documented, the social and economic returns on the investment are promoted, and a mandate is sought for the change. The change is pursued as vigorously as other nation defining matters such as defence, health and education. The change is implemented.